Biafra-Nigeria power tussle may lead to Third World War if care is not taken.
BIAFRA-NIGERIA TUSSLE: A LOOK ON THE POWER PERMUTATION OF POSSIBLE POWER BROKERS
The issue of Biafra is no longer a national issue. There are many interest international power brokers who are no longer ready to sit idle at the fence watching the events unveiling. These interests’ parties have their various degrees at which they would love to get committed into the tussle. While Biafrans led by Mazi Nnamdi Kanu is driving deep into currying western supports and by extension, other key non western blocs, Nigeria led by the Fulanis are driving towards China and her allies.
This write up is geared towards assessing what various parties choice of allies seeking might result to.
POSSIBLE TEAM NIGERIA (UNITED KINGDOM, CHINA, TURKEY, PARKISTAN AND IRAN)
Speculatively, I see these above countries to possibly throw in their supports to Nigeria. It is important to also state here that their power possessions vary as they on their individual levels have different power stake.
This is the mother nation to Nigeria. Britain would wish to have Nigeria remain even if not on oil benefit, but to run her as a mercantile outlet for British products now EU future market is not guaranteed and the current Donald Trump’s protectionist market policy. But what Britain can’t go too deep into, is to get her economy sank into a war she will lose. She would rather get the Biafra question resolved diplomatically which is less expensive to her than to get involved into war that involves present Biafra generation. On one hand, Britain feels cheated and maneuvered by Nnamdi Kanu who established the Radio Biafra London in UK before now. To UK, it is a difficult thing to explain that she “doesn’t want Biafra she is hosting her Radio Station”.
To the Nigerian Government, it is a silly explanation for one who is housing the assets of their enemies to come and tell them that she is not in support of Biafra. For Britain to convince Nigeria to the contrary, she needs extra commitment which Britain is also careful to handle. For instance, Nigerian Government have often protested to UK over broadcast of RBL from London, but Britain knowing too well the damage involved in going extra-judicial in handling the issue, often times choose to neglect Nigeria’s protest. Countries of Africa (Anglophonian countries) who would have been sympathetic to Nigeria, often feel that British Government who licensed Radio Biafra London wants Nigeria disintegrated. This is a serious hook that Britain is struggling to explain to the world!
China as a newly emerging market is careful not to drag her growing but unstable economy into crises. Cases abound, where china ought rightly refused to be dragged into war, knowing too well that such is American ploy to get her emerging economy dwindled. In Korea Peninsula, China abandoned North Korea when it becomes obvious that Donald Trump was ready to Bomb North Korea. Trump deployment of America B-Bombers which are all nuclear delivery agents, forced China to distance herself from the sick North Korea.
In Djibouti which is in Horn of Africa, China and United States are on strong soft war which Beijing tries to reduce tensions. In South Sudan, China is making effort to get her interest which contradicts American interest to be hidden under UN operation. It doesn’t mean China is showing fear, but truth be told, an economic conscious country like China who ones was ravaged by poverty would not want her nursing and nurturing economy be destroyed by economical stable United states.
China understands how United States wants to wreck her down through wars, and she tries to avoid that.
From Obama Asian Pivot to Trump’s B-Bomber deployment down to the present Hong Kong crises are soft American traps to get China entangled into devastative trap. China has read histories widely and understands how America used artificially external created wars to wreck down the defunct USSR. And to china, she doesn’t want to get into American created wars for her. It is this Chinese skepticism that forced Nigeria to look unto Russia for arms. China doesn’t want to be dragged into cold war with United States over Nigerian affairs, and that singular act made the Nigerian Government to look for arm procurement from Russia. But if truth be told, IPOB have a comparative advantage to engage China not necessary to arm Biafrans, but to remain neutral in the Biafra-Nigeria ongoing battle. Getting China to delink from any kind of support to Nigeria will be the final collapse of the contraption.
The trapped turkey would have loved to give support to the Nigerian government as Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is trying hard to position himself and turkey as the “Voice of Islam”. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan thinks that the failure of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States not to confront Israel rather are under romance with the state of Israel is a betrayal to the Muslim Umar.
So if Turkey is to support Nigeria, she would do that under the flag of Islam. But unfortunately, Turkey is trapped into Syria which only Heaven knows when and how she will come out from the mess Trump created for her. She is facing serious economic challenges due to the immigrant’s influx and the current war she uncalculatively walked into in Syria.
Saudi and the rest of Gulf States are not happy with Turkey self made leader of Muslim world. For instance, during the time of Qatar blockade by Saudi and other gulf states with Egypy inclusive, Turkey stood on the side of Qatar with Iran against Saudi Arabia and her friends which were interpreted by Saudi Arabia as a direct challenge by Turkey. Such a country with magnitude of challenges will never wished to have herself lump into Nigerian mess.
PARKISTAN AND IRAN
Pakistan has been a source of Nigeria arms and other Islamic teachings and techniques. Pakistan has been known as technically failed state which is control by powerful military personnel who are sympathetic to Islamic course. Though claimed to be “democratic state”, the world knows the role of Pakistan in destabilization of Afghanistan through the Talibans. Even Osama Bin ladin got his safe haven in Pakistan and India today is suffering the effects of having such extremist country as neighbor.
In case of Biafra-Nigeria crises, Pakistan if approach can give advisory role to Nigeria as she currently have no money to share as she is currently suffering due to Donald Trump’s withdrawal of American aid to her due to her anti Israel postures. Today, Pakistan is also foreseeing outbreak of war with India over Kashmir and would loved to concentrate on the big trouble (India) than a distance African nation.
Iran also would wish to fall in as Saudi Arabia who is currently in love with Israel would not want to fight against “Jewish State of Biafra” freedom. But the serious challenge facing Iran is how to explain to her people and Nigerian Shiites that she is trying to save a Sunni regime of Nigeria that is still holding Sheik Ibrahim Al-Zakzaky whom Iran had warned Nigerian Sunni Government against. Also the USA walked out from JCPOA, reintroduction of sanctions and Iran current moving back to pre JCPOA behaviors is a serious headache to Iran. That alone with the Yamen crises is enough for her. Also, Syria, Iraq and Lebanon crises which are interests’ areas for Iran is enough trouble for Iran. Such a country with multiple problems with high less revenue sources due to American sanctions would love to face regional problem than Nigerian one.
POSSIBLE TEAM BIAFRA (ISRAEL, USA, EU,)
Israel is not hiding her support for Biafra. For Israel, a trust worthy man is found in Nnamdi Kanu and such a man who wants the best from his people must be supported. Israel founds pride in associating with a smart and intelligent fellow who is not shy in unearthing his Jewishness. If there is anything Israel would love to see soon, it is a “Jewish State” in Africa. Israel understands the challenge of getting this done, but like in their manners, Israel derives pride in making sure her dreams are achieved despite the cumbersome challenges. If there is anything Nnamdi Kanu is enjoying today, it is the smiles of state of Israel.
The clear involvement of state of Israel in Biafrans freedom sends a lot of countries to play with caution including Britain. Britain understands the place of Israel in her “Government Communications Headquarters, commonly known as GCHQ”. A government that is receiving such magnitude of safety communication from Israel wouldn’t want to fight against Israel. No wonder Britain chooses to tour Biafraland than instigating for war. Israel would wish to use Nnamdi kanu and Biafra case to teach lessons to countries who would dream to toy with the Jews. The most difficult thing now to Nigeria and Britain is how Nnamdi Kanu would be talked away from wearing Jewish religion wears which is taking the challenge beyond State of Israel to world Jewry. Nigeria fears Israel’s advancements in Sahel, ECOWAS and AU is geared towards aiding Biafra struggle. To Nigeria, Chad, Niger, Togo and others have betrayed her and must be deprived of those benefits they get from Nigerian Market.
It is this smart play of the Biafran struggle to Jerusalem that made Nigeria to think that Nnamdi kanu is dangerous and over smart to undermined. What one is struggling to understand is how Nnamdi Kanu gave the Biafra struggle a multi-dimensional definition. The world is scared if Israel (a Nuclear Possessor) would watch and see the Biafran Jews murdered in millions again! Some social analysts are beginning to understand what Nnamdi Kanu meant by saying “if care is not taken, Biafra will cause third world war”.
Unite State Government feels unhappy with the way things are going especially in Nigeria. To USA, Nigeria government is running away from her responsibilities with the lie that Nnamdi kanu and IPOB only wants war. The failure of the Nigerian government not to adhere to the United States advice to engage IPOB on dialogue makes United States to frown at Nigeria. Unfortunately, on her failed assassination attempts on Nnamdi kanu, United States got to know that Nigeria is a lawless and crook state that must be crumbled. Today, all efforts by the Nigerian government to survive are under severe blockade diplomatically. Surprisingly, USA have opened up for Nnamdi Kanu that he may present his case which he is doing assiduously and intelligently. The rest is not for here…
European Union which have sort audience with Nnamdi Kanu feels that if Britain should decide their fate on the regional bloc, that such should be extended to the Biafran people. On Russia, it will be a separate discourse…